Monday, December 27, 2010

Solving the Puzzle: Researching the Impacts of Climate Change Around the World - ( NSF Report )

History of Palestine, Israel Year Book, 1950/51

http://www.ismi.emory.edu/PrimarySource/ZionistMovementHistoryto1948IsraelYearBook1950.pdf
History of Palestine, Israel Year Book, 1950/51
The Zionist Movement
The Zionist Movement, the unique instance in world history of a people without a land organizing itself for the rebuilding of its country which had been destroyed, is a comparatively recent growth. It dates its origin from the first Zionist Congress held on the initiative of Dr. Theodor Herzl in Basle, Switzerland, in August 1897. Its formal establishment, however was preceded by an unbroken tradition of Zionist sentiment which was always a conscious and living factor among the Jewish communities scattered throughout the world*.
*
The Constitution of the Organization has changed very little since 1897. The Organization comprises individual Jews all over the world above the age of 18 who become members by the payment of a membership fee known as the Shekel. They vote for delegates to the supreme body which is the Congress. Until 1901 the Congress used to meet each year and since then, except during the First and Second World Wars, it has met once every two years. The Congress elects a General Council or Actions Committee to run the Organization during the interval between Congresses, and a small Executive which is in charge of administration and of the implementation of Congress resolutions. At the first Congress, Herzl displayed considerable tact and ability I welding together diverse elements into a single organization. Jews had been attracted to the idea of Zionism along widely divergent paths. Religious and irreligious, capitalists and socialists, in fact a cross-section of the Jewish people as it was and is, met together to consider a program of joint action in the interest of the people as a whole it was Herzl’s purpose to fix attention on combined action and to divert discussion from issues which could have raised ideological conflict and division. He set a tradition which has been maintained for over half a century and which, with one or two exceptions, has kept the movement whole despite internal conflicts.
The Zionist program as formulated at Basle gave expression to Herzl’s view that the Jewish problem was an international concern. The movement aimed at a publicly recognized and internationally guaranteed national home for the Jews in Palestine.

A Return Trip to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex - by Sig Hecker

http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/23035/HeckerYongbyon.pdf

A Return Trip to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex
Siegfried S. Hecker
Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University
November 20, 2010
Summary
On November 12, during my most recent visit to the Yongbyon Nuclear Complex
with Stanford University colleagues John W. Lewis and Robert Carlin, we were shown a
25 to 30 megawatt-electric (MWe) experimental light-water reactor (LWR) in the early
stages of construction. It is North Korea’s first attempt at LWR technology and we were
told it is proceeding with strictly indigenous resources and talent. The target date for
operation was said to be 2012, which appears much too optimistic.
At the fuel fabrication site, we were taken to a new facility that contained a
modern, small industrial-scale uranium enrichment facility with 2,000 centrifuges that
was recently completed and said to be producing low enriched uranium (LEU) destined
for fuel for the new reactor. Unlike all previously visited Yongbyon nuclear facilities, the
uranium enrichment facility was ultra-modern and clean. We were also told that this
facility was constructed and operated strictly with indigenous resources and talent.
These facilities appear to be designed primarily for civilian nuclear power, not to
boost North Korea’s military capability. That can be accomplished much more
expeditiously by restarting the dormant 5 MWe gas-graphite reactor, constructing a new,
larger gas-graphite reactor and conducting additional nuclear tests; but we saw no
evidence of continued plutonium production at Yongbyon. Nevertheless, the uranium
enrichment facilities could be readily converted to produce highly-enriched uranium
(HEU) bomb fuel (or parallel facilities could exist elsewhere) and the LWR could be run
in a mode to produce plutonium potentially suitable for bombs, but much less suitable
than that from their current reactor.

Center for International Security and Cooperation - CISAC

http://cisac.stanford.edu/docs/about_cisac

CISAC's mission is to produce policy-relevant research on international security problems, to teach and train the next generation of security specialists, and to influence policymaking in international security.

The Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), part of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), is an interdisciplinary university-based research and training center addressing some of the world's most difficult security problems with policy-relevant solutions. The Center is committed to scholarly research and to giving independent advice to governments and international organizations. In that effort, both parts of our name are crucial: we seek international security and we recognize that cooperation among peoples and governments is often the best way to achieve this.

CISAC is co-directed by Siegfried Hecker, professor (research) in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, and Scott Sagan, professor of political science.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Stocks flat as GDP growth falls below estimates

Stocks flat after revised third quarter GDP growth comes in below analyst estimates

, On Wednesday December 22, 2010, 9:44 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are essentially flat in early trading after a report said the U.S. economy did not grow as quickly during the summer as analysts predicted.
The Commerce Department said the country's gross domestic product rose 2.6 percent between July and September, a small gain from its earlier estimate of 2.5 percent. Analysts hoped for a gain of 2.8 percent.
Economic reports will likely remain a focus of Wall Street. The National Association of Realtors will release its report on November sales of previously occupied homes later on Wednesday morning.
In early trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 8.5, or 0.1 percent, to 11,542. The S&P 500 rose 1, or 0.1 percent, to 1,256. The Nasdaq composite index rose 2, or 0.1 percent, to 2,669.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Study finds probable carcinogen in tap water of 31 U.S. cities

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/20/AR2010122002505.html
By Lyndsey Layton
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 20, 2010; 7:47 PM


A new analysis showing the presence of a probable carcinogen in the tap water of 31 cities across the country has raised questions about possible risks posed to consumers in those communities and how they can reduce their exposure.
The chemical, hexavalent chromium, got public attention in the 2000 film "Erin Brockovich" and has been found to cause cancer in laboratory animals by the National Toxicology Program, part of the National Institutes of Health.
Although basic water filters such as those made by Brita and PUR do not remove hexavalent chromium, several reverse-osmosis systems designed for home use can take the chemical out of water. Such systems are available for purchase online and at hardware stores.
Bottled water is not necessarily an alternative because it is often drawn from municipal water systems and can still contain hexavalent chromium or other contaminants.
The analysis, released Monday by the Environmental Working Group, is the first nationwide look at hexavalent chromium in drinking water to be made public. The advocacy group sampled tap water from 35 cities and detected hexavalent chromium in 31 of those communities. Of those, 25 had levels that were higher than a health goal proposed last year by the state of California.
Locally, Bethesda and Washington had levels of .19 parts per billion, more than three times the California goal.

The Dream Act joins a shameful tradition - WaPo blog

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/12/in_1830_congress_passed_the.html
By Edward Schumacher-Matos


In 1830, Congress passed the Indian Removal Act. It forced most Native Americans in the Deep South to move to Oklahoma in what became known as the "trail of tears and death."
Then in 1850, Congress passed the Fugitive Slave Law. It required federal law enforcement officials to arrest any black person in the North that a Southern slaveholder declared as his. Blacks were forcibly shipped south under the law.
In 1882, Congress turned international and passed two laws that called for the deportation of immigrants who were convicts, "lunatics" or "idiots"; one of the laws also targeted many Chinese. The Chinese helped build the railroads and open the West, but nativists had demanded their expulsion.
In the first decades of the 20th century, Congress passed another series of deportation laws, this time aimed at eastern and southern European immigrants who were suspected also of being socialists or anarchists. In 1919 and 1920, thousands were dragged from their homes in the two massive "Palmer Raids" and, often within hours, put on ships.
In 1952, Congress severely limited judicial review of deportation cases; after President Harry Truman objected that the law was too severe, Congress overrode his veto. Two years later, in what officials called "Operation Wetback," nearly 1 million Mexicans suspected of not having visas were summarily rounded up in the Southwest and sent across the border.

When foreign policy realism isn't realistic - WaPo

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/20/AR2010122003903.html
By Michael Gerson
Tuesday, December 21, 2010;


Early in his service as President Nixon's national security adviser, Henry Kissinger paid a visit to his homeland. The West German government suggested to the press that Kissinger intended to visit some relatives. "What the hell are they putting out?" Kissinger vented to his aides. "My relatives are soap."
Blunt, and true. Kissinger had left Germany in August 1938 as a 15-year-old refugee, three months before Kristallnacht. His granduncle, three aunts and other relatives were murdered in the Holocaust.
So it is appalling to hear Kissinger, an epic life later, telling Nixon on a scratchy recording from March 1, 1973: "Let's face it: The emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy. And if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. It may be a humanitarian concern."

Thursday, December 16, 2010

What happens to a stock when a company is bought out ?

The process of acquiring another company is long and complicated. From the announcement of the deal to its completion, many factors can affect the stock prices of both companies, from risks of the deal falling apart to rumors in the marketplace to actions of speculators. Ultimately, whether the deal is done with stock, cash, or a combination thereof, at the end of the process the merged companies trade under only one stock symbol.

    Initial Rise

  1. When a firm announces its intentions to buy out another company, the stock of the target company generally jumps in value, sometimes quite significantly. To entice companies to allow themselves to be acquired, the bidding company usually has to offer the target company and its shareholders a premium over the current stock price, leading to the rise in stock value.
  2. Arbitrage Discount

  3. When a stock buyout is announced, there is always a risk that the deal will not be completed. Acquiring companies can rescind their offer, shareholders might not offer their support, or securities regulators might not allow the deal.

    As a result, stocks rarely trade at the actual price where a deal is announced. The size of the discount to the announced buyout price reflects the market's assessment of the risk involved in the deal reaching completion.
  4. Post-Announcement Trading

  5. In between the announcement of the buyout offer and the deal's completion, the stock price of the target company will move in relation to a number of non-financial factors. Oftentimes, rumors hit the stock market about the progress of or difficulties anticipated with the deal, and these rumors tend to move the stock price up or down. If the deal is a stock deal rather than a cash deal, the target company's stock will tend to trade in line with that of the acquiring company.
  6. Other Buyers

  7. If market participants anticipate that another buyer might emerge for the target company, the stock price can move above the price offered by the original suitor. If another buyer is indeed announced, the stock price then might move down, after having traded up in anticipation.
  8. Buyout

  9. At the completion of a stock buyout, the target company's stock is canceled and shareholders receive a proportionate number of shares of the purchasing company, per the terms of the deal.

    In a cash buyout, shareholders receive a dollar amount per share of their stock, which is then canceled and worthless.


Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Fed cites unemployment in sticking with bond plan - Fed maintains pace of $600 billion bond program, says recovery too slow to cut unemployment

On Tuesday December 14, 2010, 3:17 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it will maintain the pace of its $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program because a slowly improving economy is still too weak to bring down high unemployment.
Fed policymakers said they'll continue to monitor the bond-buying program. They left open the option of buying more bonds if the economy weakens, or less if it strengthens more than expected. The bond purchases are intended to lower long-term interest rates, lift stock prices and encourage higher spending.
But after the Fed issued its statement, Treasury prices sank, pushing their yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 3.46 percent, its highest level since May and well above the 3.28 percent it traded at late Monday. The yield on the 10-year note helps set interest rates on many kinds of loans including mortgages.
Bond yields have been rising over the past two months as investors have raised their expectations for growth and inflation.
Stock investors were more focused Tuesday on encouraging news that showed the fifth straight month for retail sales gains. Stocks maintained their gains, but were little changed after the Fed's statement was released.
Critics contend that the Fed's bond-purchase program would do little to help the economy and could hurt it by unleashing inflation and speculative buying in assets like stocks.
But the Fed, in its statement, said it sees no threat of inflation. The Fed once again left its key short-term interest rate near zero, where it has been since December 2008. It also repeated its pledge to hold rates at those ultra-low levels for an "extended period."

Stocks move higher as Fed continues stimulus plan - Stocks, bond yields rise on retail sales, business confidence gains; Fed leaves stimulus alone

On Tuesday December 14, 2010, 3:01 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose and bond prices fell sharply Tuesday after a handful of reports pointed to a stronger economy and the Federal Reserve said it would continue with its stimulus plan. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to its highest level since May.
The Fed left interest rates alone after its one-day meeting but said it would keep up its $600 billion bond-buying program. The Fed said that while the economic recovery is continuing, it's proceeding "at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment."
Stock indexes rose early Tuesday after the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose for the fifth straight month in November. Investors were also encouraged by a report that businesses in the U.S. increased their inventories for the 10th consecutive month, a sign they are feeling more confident about the economy.
Separately, a survey from the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of big U.S. companies, showed that 45 percent of executives say they expect their companies to add more workers over the next six months. That's the highest percentage since the survey began in late 2002.
"The economy is beginning to feel more stable than it has been," said Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNY ConvergEx Group.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 70.95, or 0.6 percent, to 11,499.51 in afternoon trading.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Tax-cut plan eases pressure on Bernanke and Fed - Tax-cut plan in Congress eases pressure on Fed's bond-purchase program to boost economy

, On Monday December 13, 2010, 2:24 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve last month absorbed a wave of criticism for announcing it will buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds to try to revitalize the economy. It won't help, critics said.
So when Fed officials meet Tuesday, they're likely to feel a weight has been lifted: The White House and key Republicans have agreed on a tax-cut deal that's expected to do just what critics said the Fed's bond purchases wouldn't: Boost spending, spur hiring and speed economic growth.
Economists say they think the Fed will still carry out its full $600 billion bond-buying plan by the end of June as scheduled. Unemployment is 9.8 percent, and the economy needs all the help it can get.
But the tax-cut plan does make the Fed less likely to buy even more than $600 billion in bonds -- something Chairman Ben Bernanke said it might do if the economy needed further help. No policy changes are expected at the Fed's meeting.
"The tax-cut plan reduces pressure on the Fed to have to buy more government securities," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "I think they are committed to $600 billion because they aren't certain how things will turn out. It's always possible the economy could rev up rapidly. But I think the odds are low the Fed will do less."
Zandi and other economists think the tax cuts will help stimulate growth over the next two years. And consequently, the Fed might have to raise record-low interest rates sooner than had been expected. That's because stronger growth increases the risk of high inflation, which the Fed fights by raising rates to cool the economy. The tax-cut plan will also swell the government's annual budget deficits, which are already running well over $1 trillion.
Zandi and others now think the Fed will start raising rates in late 2012, compared with early 2013 without the tax-cut plan.

QE2 Is the Right Fed Policy - Jeremy Siegel

Posted on Friday, December 10, 2010, 12:00AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/294376
One of the most gratifying experiences of my career was being a colleague of Milton Friedman's at the University of Chicago. This was my first academic position after receiving my Ph.D. in economics from MIT. Not only had Professor Friedman's political philosophy attracted me but he was also the acknowledged expert in monetary policy, which was my specialty. Friedman's path-breaking analysis of the Federal Reserve's failure to provide liquidity to the banks as a cause of the Great Depression was cited as one of the reasons he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1976. After Friedman retired from teaching and moved to San Francisco, I visited him and his wife, Rose, as often as I could. I particularly recall a meeting with him in 1997 at his summer home in Sea Ranch, about 100 miles north of San Francisco. I asked him what the Japanese could do to help their economy, given that the Bank of Japan had reached zero short-term interest rates.
He replied without hesitation, "Add more liquidity to the system -- create more reserves!" He reiterated a major theme of his monetary research -- that one should not look at interest rates when judging the stance of monetary policy but at liquidity, reserves, and the supply of money.
Friedman died in 2004, several years before the recent financial crisis. The absence of his perspective on the Fed's monetary policy is sorely missed, but I have no doubt that he would have stood foursquare in favor of the quantitative easing now pursued by Ben Bernanke.

What Do Rising Interest Rates Mean for the Economy?

Dec 13, 2010 02:18pm EST by Daniel Gross
In theory, bond investors are supposed to keep the behavior of governments and consumers in check by passing judgment on a nation's fiscal health. If things look bad, they sell, pushing up interest rates, and forcing policymakers and consumers to change course. From the outset of the financial crisis, critics warned that the combination of higher deficits (thanks to increased spending and collapsing tax revenues) and the Fed's easy money policies would ignite inflation, and act as a clarion call to the bond vigilantes.
But for two years, the bond vigilantes seemed to remain in hiding, as interest rates on U.S. government bonds generally fell, and then fell again. But in the past month, after laying waste to Greece and Ireland, the bond vigilantes have finally hit America's shores. In recent weeks, investors fearful about America's long-term financial future have pushed up the interest rate on the 10-year and 30-year bond. The yield on the 10-year bond has risen from 2.48 percent on November 4 to about 3.3 percent today -- an increase of 33 percent. Rates on other government debt have also drifted upward. SmartMoney.com's living yield curve provides an excellent month-by-month graphic on how interest rates move over time.
The swift movement raises several questions for consumers, borrowers, and policymakers.